It’s Happening Again: Three Reasons Clinton will lose the Democratic Nomination once more

Its happening again.

For those of us who watched Hillary Clinton go to absolute war against Barack Obama in 2008 for the Democratic nomination, we are beginning to see a trend rise once more that we know very well. The seemingly obvious candidate slowly eroding under an ever raising tide of passionate and active voters that were determined to beat the big bucks and the Dynasty pattern in government.

That’s right America, Hillary Clinton is once again slowly falling as the outsider Bernie Sanders begins to frame the entire nomination in his direction. Now, as in 2008, we begin to see the first stages around this time, as Clinton begins attempting to be most like whoever is gaining on her (Sanders in this case) in a strange metamorphosis she seems blind to. She is not, however, ignorant of the fact that the nomination is slipping through her hands like sand, and today we observe three reasons why we know that’s true.

THE INTERNET

If you’ve noticed anything about Senator Sanders, its that his campaign is monumental online. Regardless of your social media preference, Sanders’ supporters are everywhere with the kind of consistency and enthusiasm that few can match. Each supporter genuinely exposing friend and foe alike, and the new Sanders fans created from that action themselves begin the same earnest process. This creates an almost free service that rolls over top of itself into limitless possibilities.

Now, take a look at Clintons online presence. Her followers seem competitive in volume at first glance, but take a closer peek. Its clear a solid number are “farmed” or purchased Likes, posts, and ads. As we all know, this kind of social media individual almost never engages with the content beyond the first click or share. Clinton has more followers in Iraq and Japan than she does in all the early voting states, and this is only part of the problem.

The bigger picture shows a campaign that still doesn’t know how to engage online, or casts off its value. You have to wonder, as Sanders competes with or passes Clinton on all major Social media sites, what she is thinking in order to battle the massive internet beast known as Bernie Sanders supporters. They are not bought Likes, they are fully engaged with eyes feverishly locked on the goal that is the Democratic nomination. She is also visibly losing first time voters in 2016; another sign she has a serious disconnect from the Digital Era where a large majority of these individuals will intake most political information.

If you know how most news feeds on any major website operate, then you’re aware that items shared around and commented on are much more likely to appear. This would suggest that Sanders exposure value is drastically higher than Hillarys, as more engaging means items appear more often to both existing and potential supporters. What we are seeing is the beginning of what is and will continue to become a digits waterfall that flows in one direction; away from Clinton.

AVOIDANCE TACTICS

Unlike her major head-to-head showdown with Obama in 2008 that stretched on for more than a year, Clinton has decided this time to go a different road against her newest fast rising opponent. Thus far she has said very little of Sanders, and recently spoke further on the matter at a fundraiser; insisting that time will defeat Sanders while simultaneously proving herself the correct choice. Reports of unease from donors and longtime supporters has been in the background for weeks now, but Clinton seems to be standing by her decision.

Part of this is that if Clinton acknowledges Sanders as a potential threat publicly by attacking him, then she undoubtedly will raise his stock in the race. The other reason Appears to be, based on several of her recent statements, is that if she attacks Sanders on a topic directly, she loses the opportunity to change her own stance on the issue. Take the Keystone pipeline for example, or her support for things such as same sex marriage (which has flip flopped, in a good way). While she very actively battles him in the less viewed money realms of politics, thus far we may see a Clinton who won’t engage Sanders until he is a serious threat in every way.

That has many of her donors and proclaimed “super delegates in the pocket” understandably uneasy. Bernie Sanders may be to the left of Clinton, but not so far away that she has a mountain in which to attack him from. Many of the ideas Sanders has placed at the forefront of his campaign are policies and beliefs that the typical possible Clinton voter would, at the very least, hear out with hopeful enthusiasm. By remaining mostly silent, she is almost allowing herself to become a “Bernie Sanders with less authenticity and consistency,” as one reporter from YT recently put it. This may leave many to just vote for Sanders instead of Clinton.

Don’t even start down the road of what’s going on with the DNC debates. Most Democrat or Dem leaning voters are seeing this whole mess as yet another example of attempting to keep meaningful clashes tucked away.

THE YEAR

A final point, as there are certainly more than three one could draw up, is the flavor of the year. Simply put, take a look around at the most popular candidates that also invoke a wide breadth of nonetheless powerful emotion across the voting spectrum. People are not keen on casting their vote for typical politicians, insiders or anyone that seems tied to Administration. Candidates like Carson, Trump and Sanders are some of the more prominentexamples of individuals that have not been idly basking in political spotlight. Voters are making it quite clear that they once more intend to “shake things up” with the next new president.

Hillary was somewhat taken by this in 2008 with Obama, but it was more the message than the man that inevitably took her out. This time, Clinton has to directly take on several entities that exceed her own ability to claim themselves outside the Big Pockets and/or Washington. She is part of a political dynasty that spans decades, and her resume on dealing with Big Business financially tags along right there with it. She will not be able to force voters to see her as a fresh new operation, but at best a more assertive and active prolonging of the Obama/Clinton Administration.

In an election year where the common citizen is eager for some level of drastic change in the Oval Office, Clinton finds herself in the strange place of being a brand new choice on many levels, but a continuity of the same in others. She is too embedded to call herself an outsider, she has taken too much from Corporate America to run that card, and the whole first female President angle is a powerful one that is hard to translate into votes on the idea alone.

Unless Hillary can honestly get a grip on the world of today, the temperature of the voters, and accept where and who she is as a candidate, she will inevitably repeat what happened in 2008, and once more watch a wave of very eager supporters carry off what is likely her final chance at the Presidency.